Daily Briefing - October 8, 2020

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by managing editor, Roger Hirst, to talk stimulus, currencies, and the Treasury market. Roger provides his thoughts on the latest Fed minutes by discussing how the Fed is setting up inflation expectations through TIPS as well as holding rates low for the next few years. The difficulties, he says, will be in maintaining inflation expectations while not allowing for yields to be drive upward. This leads into a discussion about currencies where Roger elaborates how a weaker dollar will lead to a stronger euro and yen, setting the stage for an unfavorable deflationary scenario for Europe and Japan. They also talk about the dollar’s slow grind to the downside, how increasing bond volatility would creep into other assets, and how U.S. markets are pricing in for fiscal stimulus regardless of who wins the presidential election. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin explains the back-and-forth on fiscal stimulus negotiations and why the Fed could issue a monetary policy offset to try and sustain economic momentum. Click here to go to Lyn Alden’s forum on the impact of fiscal policy on different asset classes and submit questions ahead of time: http://rvtv.io/lyn-alden