Kettera Strategies Heat Map - January 2020
Short-term and higher-frequency programs seemed to indicate that December was just a momentary aberration, as nearly all diversified short-term programs we follow were positive in January. Most “single sector” (e.g. equities or FX only) strategies were also positive. Increased volatility seems to be paying off for these managers.
The theme in global macro appeared to continue in January, as discretionary macro programs once again outperformed, as the leading performers caught the rallies in gold and US treasuries, as well as the correction in industrial metals. Most of the quant macro programs we follow ended flat to down, the most prevalent culprits being wrong picks on the non-US fixed income markets.
AI and machine learning-based enjoyed a profitable run in January, although this is a very generalized statement as there are so many different types of these approaches - in different markets. We can say that the most profitable AI-driven managed futures program on our platform generated almost all profits from G10 fixed income markets.
Systematic trend programs appeared to have a very good month. The more profitable programs were generally long the European and North American fixed income and short-term interest rate markets. Metals commodities markets and equities indices posed some challenges but losing trades in these sectors appeared to be brief and minimal.
In the equities strategies, we can generally state that most long-short managers posted negative returns on the month, largely due to equity market disruptions. This was also somewhat true for many of the event driven strategies we track, but to a lesser extent. The equities market neutral programs we follow, in contrast, seemed to generate more positive results.
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For the “style classes” and “baskets” presented in this letter: The “style baskets” referenced above were created by Kettera for research purposes to track the category and are classifications drawn by Kettera Strategies in their review of programs on and for the Hydra Platform. The arrows represent the style basket’s overall performance for the month (e.g. the sideways arrow indicates that the basket was largely flat overall, a solid red down arrow indicates the basket (on average) was largely negative compared to most months, etc.). The “style basket” for a class is created from monthly returns (net of fees) of programs that are either: programs currently or formerly on Hydra; or under review with an expectation of being added to Hydra. The weighting of a program in a basket depends upon into which of these three groups the program falls. Style baskets are not investible products or index products being offered to investors. They are meant purely for analysis and comparison purposes. These also were not created to stimulate interest in any underlying or associated program. Nonetheless, as these research tools may be regarded to be “hypothetical” combinations of managers, hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any product or account will achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Benchmark sources:
1-The Hedge Fund Intelligence Global Macro Index and HFI Currency Index
2-The Societe Generale Trend Index and SG CTA Index
3-The Societe General Short-term Traders Index: (same link as above)
4-The Eurekahedge AI Hedge Fund Index
5-The BarclayHedge Currency Traders Index and BTOP FX Traders Index
6- S&P GSCI Metals & Energy Index and S&P GSCI Ag Commodities Index
7-The CBOE Eurekahedge Relative Value Volatility Hedge Fund Index
8-The Eurekahedge-Mizuho Multi-Strategy Index: (See above)
9-The Eurekahedge Long Short Equities Hedge Fund Index: (See above)
10-Blend of BarclayHedge Equity Market Neutral Index with Eurekahedge Equity Mkt Neutral Index (see link above)
Indices and other financial benchmarks shown are provided for illustrative purposes only, are unmanaged, reflect reinvestment of income and dividends and do not reflect the impact of advisory fees. Index data is reported as of date of publication and may be a month-to-date estimate if all underlying components have not yet reported. The index providers may update their reported performance from time to time. Kettera disclaims any obligation to verify these numbers or to update or revise the performance numbers.
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