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1512 St Gallen Report

Week 24 Complimentary Market: ExxonMobil

Our complimentary market analysis this week looks at ExxonMobil.


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Indicator 1: Commitments of Traders Data

Score: 37.03 / 100

The Commitments of Traders indicator shows a reading of 37.03, which is below the indicator’s desired 39 mark for single stocks. This means that Commercials seem to have become extremely short during Exxon’s recent upwards run, suggesting that there may be a second attempt this year of the price to move towards the downside.



Indicator 2: Valuation

Score: 100 / 100

The model’s Valuation Indicator for Exxon is at 100 and is, therefore, at its maximum score. This suggests that Exxon is extremely over-valued and therefore the market should move to the downside.



Indicator 3: Retail (The Crowd) vs Professional

Score: 90 / 100

The Crowd Indicator (the upper red line) score of 90 is extremely high and it has been above 80 for about 2 weeks. Therefore, the Crowd seems to have become very bullish towards Exxon during its recent upwards move. Since the indicator suggests that retail investors are often on the wrong side, the Crowd indicator implies that this market might top soon.



Indicator 4: Trend Strength

Score: 33.79 / 100

The model’s Trend Strength Indicator reads 33.79 which is below the indicator’s desired 40 score which the model requires to suggest a price direction change. At the beginning of April, it reached the 60-mark, however. This current change of direction is a sign to the model that the market is looking for a top.



Indicator 5: Seasonals

Direction / Timescale: N/A / N/A

Due to a lack of data, the Seasonals Indicator is not available for Exxon.



Indicator 6: Overbought / Oversold

Score: 97.21 Short-term, 59.63 Mid-term

The model’s Overbought / Oversold Indicator suggests that Exxon is, with a score of 97.21 out of 100, heavily overbought in the short-run and, with a score of 59.63, in the neutral zone in the mid-run. This means that this indicator suggests a change of price direction in the short-term.



Indicator 7: Driving Force

Driver: Commercials

The Driving Force Indicator for Exxon shows that the confidence (negative fear) in the market (the grey line), which is driven by retail investors, is close to historical highs. This is a sign of weakness in the market. The supporting grey indicator should still rise a bit further to anticipate a mid-term price direction change, however, all requirements are checked for the Driving Force indicator to suggest a short-term trend change.



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